Crime Rate Trends in Canada (2015–2023)
The Liberal government, led by Justin Trudeau, has been in power since November 2015. To assess whether the crime rate in Canada has gone up or down over the last eight years and evaluate claims about the Liberal government’s responsibility, let’s examine the data from Statistics Canada and other sources, focusing on the Crime Severity Index (CSI), Violent Crime Severity Index (VCSI), and specific crime trends.
• Overall Crime Severity Index (CSI):
• The CSI, which measures the volume and severity of police-reported crime, has generally increased since 2015, reversing a long-term decline from the late 1990s to 2014.
• 2014 (pre-Liberal government): The CSI hit an all-time low.
• 2015–2019: The CSI began rising, with a steady upward trend (+19% over five years from 2015 to 2019).
• 2020: A temporary drop occurred due to COVID-19 lockdown restrictions, which reduced opportunities for certain crimes (e.g., property crimes). The CSI fell by about 4% compared to 2019.
• 2021–2023: The CSI resumed its upward trend, increasing by 5% in 2021, 4% in 2022, and 2% in 2023. By 2023, the CSI was higher than in 2015 and at its highest level since 2007.
• Summary: The overall CSI has increased by approximately 15–20% from 2015 to 2023, though it remains lower than its peak in the early 1990s.
• Violent Crime Severity Index (VCSI):
• The VCSI, focusing on violent crimes like homicide, assault, and sexual assault, has also risen significantly since 2015.
• 2015–2023: The VCSI increased by 32% from 2015 to 2023, reaching its highest point since 2007 in 2022. Violent crime rates per 100,000 people rose from 1,095 in 2013 to 1,427 in 2023, a 30% increase over the decade, with much of this occurring under the Liberal government.
• Key Trends:
• Homicide: The homicide rate increased from 1.68 per 100,000 in 2015 to 2.25 in 2022 (a 43% rise), the highest in 30 years, though it dropped slightly to 1.94 in 2023 (a 14% decrease from 2022).
• Sexual Assault: Level 1 sexual assault rates rose by 18% in 2021 and 3% in 2022, reaching the highest level since 1996.
• Extortion: Extortion rates surged, increasing by 39% in 2022 and 35% in 2023, a fivefold rise since 2012.
• Firearm-Related Crime: Firearm-related violent crime rose to 36.7 incidents per 100,000 in 2022, an 8.9% increase from 2021 and a 14-year high, though it represents only 2.8% of total violent crime.
• 2023 Update: The VCSI remained virtually unchanged in 2023, with declines in homicide and sexual offenses against children offsetting rises in other areas.
• Summary: Violent crime has risen significantly since 2015, with a 44% increase in violent crime rates from 2014 to 2022, though some categories stabilized or slightly declined in 2023.
• Non-Violent Crime:
• The Non-Violent CSI, covering property crimes like theft and fraud, increased by 3% in 2023 after a 5% rise in 2022.
• Motor Vehicle Theft: Up 5% in 2023, 24% higher than pre-COVID levels, driven by post-pandemic supply chain issues and black-market demand.
• Shoplifting: Rose 28% from 2019 to 2023, with a 31% spike in 2022, linked to inflation and economic pressures.
• Fraud: Increased by 46% from 2008 to 2018 and remained a major driver of CSI increases in 2023, though only 11% of fraud cases are reported.
• Breaking and Entering: Declined by 5% in 2023, continuing a long-term drop (-72% over 25 years).
• Summary: Non-violent crime has risen, particularly in theft and fraud, but some property crimes remain below historical highs.
• Regional Variations:
• Crime rates vary across Canada. Manitoba and Saskatchewan have the highest violent crime rates, while eastern provinces like Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island have lower rates.
• In 2023, Manitoba saw a 14% CSI increase, while Nova Scotia reported a slight decrease.
• Comparison to Historical Trends:
• Despite recent increases, overall crime rates in 2023 were about 25% lower than the peak in 2003 and 40% lower than the 1990 peak.
• The current CSI is closer to 2007 levels than to historical highs, and Canada remains the 11th safest country globally per the 2023 Global Peace Index.
Conclusion: The crime rate, as measured by the CSI and VCSI, has gone up since 2015, with a notable increase in violent crime (up 32–44%) and non-violent crimes like auto theft and fraud. The upward trend began in 2015, paused in 2020 due to the pandemic, and resumed thereafter. However, crime rates remain historically low compared to the 1990s.
Is the Liberal Government to Blame?
Attributing the rise in crime solely to the Liberal government oversimplifies a complex issue. Let’s evaluate the arguments for and against their responsibility, considering policies, social factors, and expert analyses, while critically examining the establishment narrative and political claims.
Arguments Blaming the Liberal Government
• Bail Reform (2019):
• The 2019 bail reforms (Bill C-75) aimed to reduce pre-trial detention by loosening restrictions for certain offenses, addressing overcrowded jails and Charter rights. Critics argue this led to more repeat offenders being released, increasing crime. A 2019 spike in crime rates coincided with these changes, which criminologist Laura Huey suggests altered the “risk-reward ratio” for offenders.
• Conservative critics, including Pierre Poilievre, claim these “catch-and-release” policies allowed repeat violent offenders to reoffend, citing cases like the 2023 killing of Breanna Broadfoot by a suspect previously released on bail.
• A 2023 Leger survey found 79% of Canadians believe too many repeat violent offenders receive bail, reflecting public frustration.
• Gun Control Policies:
• The Liberals implemented stricter gun control measures (e.g., Bill C-71 in 2018, handgun freeze in 2022), but firearm-related crimes rose for eight consecutive years, reaching a 14-year high in 2022. Critics argue these policies target legal gun owners while failing to curb illegal firearms, which account for most gun crimes (StatsCan notes unregistered firearms drive gun violence).
• Posts on X claim gang-related homicides (+108%) and gun crimes (+116%) surged under Trudeau, attributing this to lax enforcement or ineffective laws.
• Soft-on-Crime Perception:
• The Liberals repealed some mandatory minimum sentences for gun crimes, which critics argue weakened deterrence.
• Political opponents, like the Conservative Party, highlight a 43% rise in homicides and a 50% increase in violent crime since 2015, framing Trudeau’s policies as enabling a “crime wave.”
• A Fraser Institute report notes Canada’s violent crime rate rose 44% from 2014 to 2022, surpassing the U.S. rate, suggesting policy failures under the Liberals.
• Political Narrative:
• Conservatives argue that crime was at an all-time low in 2014 under Stephen Harper’s “tough-on-crime” policies, and the Liberal shift to rehabilitation-focused reforms reversed this progress.
• X posts amplify this, claiming violent crime rose 101% and kidnappings 36% under Trudeau, blaming lenient laws and unvetted immigration.
Arguments Against Blaming the Liberal Government
• Complex Social Factors:
• Crime rates are influenced by multiple factors beyond government policy, including poverty, mental health issues, addiction, and homelessness, which worsened post-pandemic. Criminologist Irvin Waller emphasizes that solutions lie in community programs and social supports, not just policing or bail policies.
• Shoplifting (+31% in 2022) and auto theft (+24% in 2022) are linked to economic pressures like inflation and supply chain issues, not Liberal policies.
• Fraud, a major CSI driver, rose 78% over 10 years due to increased internet use and cybercrime, a global trend predating 2015.
• Historical Context:
• The crime increase began in 2015, but the John Howard Society notes the trend started in 2013 under the Conservatives, undermining claims that Liberal policies alone caused it.
• Experts argue Harper’s “tough-on-crime” policies (e.g., mandatory minimums) didn’t significantly drive the pre-2015 decline, which was tied to broader factors like an aging population and improved policing.
• Canada’s crime rates remain 40% lower than in 1990, and the CSI is stable over a 10-year view, suggesting the “crime wave” narrative is exaggerated.
• Policy Responses:
• The Liberals tightened bail laws in 2023 following public and provincial pressure, aiming to address repeat offenders.
• The 2024 National Action Plan on Combatting Auto Theft and investments in anti-trafficking measures (e.g., $75 million for the 2019 National Strategy to Combat Human Trafficking) show efforts to tackle specific crimes.
• Gun control measures aim to reduce firearm availability, but most crime guns are smuggled from the U.S. (85% per some estimates), limiting the impact of domestic laws.
• Data Misrepresentation:
• Critics like the National Post have been accused of exaggerating crime trends by cherry-picking data (e.g., comparing to the 2013 low) or ignoring declines in crimes like breaking and entering (-72% over 25 years).
• Criminologist Temitope Oriola argues that focusing on police-reported data ignores unreported crimes and social context, like poverty’s role in “crimes of survival.”
• The Liberal government claims crime perceptions are inflated, with Justice Minister Arif Virani stating in 2023 that Canada is empirically safe, though acknowledging public concerns.
• Global and Regional Trends:
• Crime increases are not unique to Canada. The U.S. saw a 49% rise in homicide rates from 2014 to 2022, suggesting broader North American trends.
• Regional variations (e.g., high crime in Manitoba, lower in Quebec) show that provincial enforcement and local conditions matter as much as federal policy.
Critical Perspective
The establishment narrative, often pushed by Liberal defenders, downplays crime increases by emphasizing historical lows or global trends, but this risks dismissing legitimate public concerns. Conversely, the Conservative narrative of a “Liberal crime wave” oversimplifies causation, ignoring how crime was already ticking up in 2013 and how social factors like poverty and mental health drive trends. Both sides cherry-pick data: Liberals highlight long-term declines, while Conservatives compare to the 2014 low to maximize the appearance of failure.
• Bail Reform: The 2019 reforms likely contributed to some recidivism, but data on repeat offenders is sparse, and tightened 2023 laws may mitigate this. Blaming bail alone ignores root causes like underfunded mental health services.
• Gun Control: Liberal policies haven’t curbed illegal gun flows from the U.S., but expecting domestic laws to solve a cross-border issue is unrealistic.
• Social Programs: The Liberals have invested in social supports (e.g., housing, anti-poverty programs), but critics argue these are insufficient or poorly implemented, failing to address crime’s socioeconomic drivers.
• Political Bias: X posts from Conservative-leaning accounts amplify crime stats (e.g., “violent crime +101%”) without context, while Liberal supporters rarely engage on the issue, reflecting polarized narratives.
Impact of Liberal Social Programs
The user’s original question asked whether liberal social programs lower crime rates. In Canada, Liberal policies since 2015 include increased funding for youth programs, mental health, and anti-poverty initiatives, but specific impacts are hard to quantify:
• Youth Programs: Investments in community programs for at-risk youth, as recommended by experts like Irvin Waller, can reduce crime, but no comprehensive evaluation ties these to CSI trends.
• Poverty Reduction: The Canada Child Benefit and other anti-poverty measures reduced child poverty rates, but rising inflation and housing costs since 2020 may offset benefits, contributing to “crimes of survival” like shoplifting.
• Mental Health: Underfunding of mental health services, a provincial responsibility, limits federal program impacts. Crime linked to mental health issues (e.g., stranger assaults) persists.
• Evidence: Studies suggest community-based programs (e.g., Operation Ceasefire-style initiatives) can lower violent crime by 20–30% in targeted areas, but Canada’s national rollout of such programs is limited. Scaling these could help, but current Liberal efforts haven’t demonstrably reversed crime trends.
Conclusion: Social programs may have mitigated some crime increases, but their impact is diluted by economic pressures, implementation gaps, and the complexity of crime causation. The Liberals’ focus on rehabilitation over punishment has mixed results, with bail reforms potentially exacerbating recidivism but social investments showing long-term promise if expanded.